While you might have found 2023 to be a memorable and fulfilling year, globally it was less than ideal: major conflicts doubled, the world economy continues to struggle, and climate deterioration outpaced predictions.
However, embracing a positive mindset holds significant value. Understanding our past experiences and dislikes can guide us toward better paths. Here's to a fruitful 2024, where we aspire for your happiness, health, and prosperity in both personal and professional endeavors.
How Did We Fare in 2023?
Before delving into our forecasts for the upcoming 12 months, it's customary to reflect on the accuracy of last year's predictions. Let's revisit what we anticipated for 2023.
a. We will cease panicking about AI — given its demonstrated utility over the past few months and the realization that AI's notable applications actually aid designers rather than supplant them, I believe I accurately predicted this.
b. We will embrace the tangible world — following the lockdown period, I anticipated a trend of integrating elements from the natural world into our design endeavors. Indeed, there has been a noticeable surge in nature-inspired trends, evident in phenomena such as the revival of Art Nouveau and Pantone's selection of the color of the year. Therefore, I confidently claim this prediction as accurate as well.
c. We will reject brutalism — and indeed, we have. The brutalism trend has faded into obscurity. It seems my streak of accurate predictions continues this year.
d. We will move away from dark mode — I foresaw a waning interest in the dark mode trend, and indeed, its prevalence has diminished noticeably throughout the year. It's possible that dark mode has evolved beyond being merely a trend — perhaps it's now a standard feature. I'm optimistic, typing this in an app that utilizes dark mode. However, as a design trend, it seems we've grown weary of it. Are we on course for a perfect record with our predictions?
e. We will embrace personal nostalgia — unfortunately, it seems I missed the mark on this one. Instagram filters remain ubiquitous, indicating that the trend towards personal retro has not materialized as anticipated.
f. We will fall for borecore — it seems my focus on invisible design might have influenced my predictions, as I missed the mark on this one as well.
Overall, 4 out of 6 predictions proved to be largely accurate, resulting in a success rate of 67%. This surpasses last year's score of 30%. Now, let's delve into what 2024 has in store for us...
1. Google Holds the Key to AI's Fate
Google faces significant challenges ahead.
Google's dominance relies heavily on its search algorithm, which drives its advertising revenue. However, the emergence of AI-driven search poses a threat, and Google's initial foray into AI has been a notable failure. The Search Generative Experience (SGE) might represent its final attempt to stay relevant in this rapidly evolving landscape.
Hence, 2024 will likely witness one of two scenarios: either Google will revolutionize SEO through AI, or akin to Cnut, it will endeavor to impede the advancement of AI by demoting results it perceives as reliant on AI. It's plausible that both outcomes may unfold in tandem.
2. Kinetic Branding
The era where logos must function solely in black and white is fading. With businesses increasingly relying less on print, and color printers becoming standard, the traditional constraints on logo design are diminishing.
The majority of branding now resides online. However, with the diverse range of branding applications, from favicons to VR setups, a single static logo often proves too rigid. Kinetic branding, which relies on motion, is gaining prominence. By animating, it not only grabs attention but also offers increased flexibility. Anticipate encountering inquiries about kinetic branding in 2024.
3. Compact Design Solutions
Traditionally, designers have marketed themselves as full-stack or all-encompassing service providers, catering to all of a client's design requirements. However, this approach is becoming increasingly impractical. Even prominent agencies with extensive staff now rely on freelancers to fulfill certain tasks.
In the current year, the focus isn't on resolving all of your client's issues at once. Instead, it's about providing a single, precise component within a larger design framework. Achieving this will necessitate meticulous planning, fostering strong relationships, and possessing a wealth of specialized expertise. Furthermore, a significant portion of your clientele this year will consist of fellow designers.
4. Compact Language Models
In order to replicate human-generated content convincingly, AI must be trained on human-generated content itself. However, a multitude of legal challenges remain unresolved, as our legal systems may not possess the capacity to effectively regulate AI.
What's expected to surface in 2024 is the ability to generate new content from existing material you possess (referred to as small language models, or SLMs). For instance, nobody would accuse the author of "Fantastic Beasts" of plagiarizing "Harry Potter." Beginning this year, brands will have the capability to utilize their existing content to train AI, thus sidestepping ethical quandaries associated with content creation.
5. Short Video Content
In 2023, designers increasingly emphasized the creation of content tailored specifically to individual companies. What was once merely reserved for the help page, such as the endearing hand-drawn mascot, now took center stage. Anything distinctive, human-made, and genuine proved to be highly effective.
An AI backlash is unlikely (that might occur in 2025), but we certainly appreciate the aspects AI struggles to replicate convincingly. In 2024, there will be a surge in short-form videos, particularly on websites.
6. First-hand Experience
The primary goal of content creation has consistently been to capture a substantial share of the market. This entails producing websites with content resembling that of market leaders to attract a portion of their audience. With AI simplifying the process of imitation, some authorities forecast that by the conclusion of 2024, half of all content will be generated by AI.
In 2024, standing out through expert content will be crucial for surpassing competitors. Guidelines such as EEAT (Experience, Expertise, Authority, and Trustworthiness) are already established to aid in this endeavor.
7. Websites Focused on Text
While we discussed kinetic branding, kinetic typography is also gaining traction. Animated text effectively captures attention, loads quickly, and adapts seamlessly to various devices. That's why text-only hero sections gained popularity in 2023.
In 2024, more websites will opt to reduce or eliminate images in favor of prominent animated text, not only for hero sections but for the entire digital interface.
